The wrong excuse for PC decline

Horace Dediu has an interesting comment on the decline of the PC industry and the growth of the tablet market.

He questions the usual analyst explanations. If the buying conditions are the same for both PCs and tablets, blaming the economy, the rate of innovation or some other external pressure only explains half the story. It explains why people might delay a PC purchase. It does not explain why they keep buying tablets.

Dediu writes:

My hypothesis is that the new products are solving new jobs for the users and those new solutions are trumping any “softness” in demand. In other words, an upgrade to an over-serving product will be deferred at the slightest excuse while an installation of an under-serving product that attacks an unsolved problem will be rationalized no matter the circumstances.

One product will be met with “Why should we buy it?” and the other by “Why shouldn’t we buy it?”

That distinction is useful. A PC upgrade asks people to justify replacing something that already works well enough. A tablet gives them a way to solve a problem that was still awkward, unfinished or poorly served.